It worked pretty well last week, so I'm continuing. :-)
- Art and craft of writing
- High concept ideas
- Publishing
- Markets
- Writing contests
- Trends - what subgenres are hot--or should be
- How-to items
- Writing life
Showing posts with label market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market. Show all posts
Friday, May 18, 2012
Ask Me Anything Friday
Once again, it's Ask Me Anything Friday.
It worked pretty well last week, so I'm continuing. :-)
I'll reply either in the comments section during the week or in another blog post within a week of the question asked (more or less, depending on how many questions I get).
Some topics:
It worked pretty well last week, so I'm continuing. :-)
Thursday, May 10, 2012
E-book Prices
A fellow writer commented that it seemed odd many mainstream book publishers are pricing their ebooks the same as they'd price their regular paper books. It does seem odd, doesn't it? After all, there's less overhead in the production of ebooks than there would be in a paper book. Certainly, the cost of materials would be less.
I think the market is in the testing phase, and there is more in the cost of production that goes into pricing.
The natural thing to assume about ebooks is that because they are rather...non-physical compared to paper books, and of course the reproduction costs are minimal compared to printing books,the books should therefore be priced at a lower cost than paper books.
I won't get into the fact that the electrons and molecules that make up data are as real as those in our bodies, and without those electrons, both ebooks and our bodies would burst into nothingness, because that would not only be irrelevant to this post, but would start me down the road to science fiction, which I don't want to get into at this point. :-)
But where pricing is concerned there are a few factors to consider.
1. Cost of production
All books, regardless of type, have a certain cost of production. You ever hear about the fact that "time is money"? Exactly. You go to work, you type up a report, fix a car, or code some software, and your boss pays you for that time. Same thing happens with a book, whether it's an ebook or a paper book. Regardless of whether the book is electronic or paper, someone puts in the time thinking up the story and hours upon hours of writing it. Then that person goes through and edits the book (I hope!). Someone creates a cover for it, whether it's painted or whether it's created on Photoshop. All these people need to be paid so that they can have a roof over their heads and food on the table. For paper books, editors go over the book in various stages to see if there are any errors that need to be fixed, anything from punctuation and grammar errors to story continuity. Trust me, an author can be as meticulous as all get-out and go over her story five times and still miss something, so having an editor or a very good critique group is essential. Editors, of course, need to be paid.
Of course, the production similarities diverge when it comes to the physical production. For paper books, there is the cost of getting paper, printing them, puting physical book covers on them, and all the costs involved in putting the books on trucks and driving them to various bookstores and grocery stores. Oh, and yes, those running the stores have to be paid, too. All of that goes into the price of a book. About 94% of the price of a paper book pays everyone except the author. The author generally gets 6% of the cover price. So, a paper book costs $5, the author gets 30 cents of that.
Even with an ebook, the retailer--Amazon, Barnes and Noble, Apple, etc.--get their cut.
2. Quality
Let's say you had a choice between two outfits. One is designed by Armani, is a perfect fit, makes you look 10 lbs thinner, and is made of silk so soft it's to die for. The other one is made of polyester that could sand the glaze off pottery and makes you look like your mother on drugs. Which would you choose? The dynamite silk outfit of course. The silk outfit is quality, the polyester is not. Most people are willing to pay a bit more for well-made silk than for poorly-made polyester.
3. Perception of value
Which brings me to the perception of value. In the example of quality above, all other things being equal, you'll probably want to get the Armani rather than the polyester-looks-like-your-mother-on-drugs outfit. Let's say you didn't even see a picture of the outfits, but you know that they're in your size and in a color you like. Again, which one would you go for? I bet the Armani. Why? Because chances are really good that the Armani would be better made and look good. In fact, if the polyester outfit cost $75, and the Armani cost $150--$75 more!--you'd still go for the Armani because at that price, it's worth it, even though it costs more than the polyester no-name suit, because a good Armani suit goes for around $200 on sale if you're lucky.
In other words, to most people, the name "Armani" has value. The company has a good reputation for well-made clothes.
But what if there's another company that makes to-die-for clothes--one you haven't heard of? How do you hear about it? Maybe a friend decided to take a chance, and ended up loving that company's clothes. He or she tells you about it. That previously no-name company now has a little bit more value to you--enough so that you're willing to give it a try--because your friend liked it, and you trust your friend.
The same thing goes for books.
In this exploding ebook publishing world, you get every kind of pricing from free to $10.00. You have every kind of person's work--from a teenager's fan fic homage to Twilight to J.K. Rowling--out there for sale. There are probably hundreds of thousands of books out there that you could download. How do you choose?
It basically comes down to cost of production, quality, and perception of value.
Even with ebooks, the cost of production will vary. There are more than a few ebooks out there by writers who couldn't spell their way out of a paper bag, whose stories are boring, or simply don't make any sense. The production costs are really low because the writer just wrote whatever and the uploaded it, and maybe slapped a bland cover on it that they Photoshopped in about a minute. That's low production cost, right there, and hand in hand with that is low quality.
These books may be free or cost 99 cents, but even at free you're going to wonder why you spent the time you did even trying to get through it. Your opinion of the book may be a matter of taste, but there are some real, objective, quality issues that are important to a production of a book that make even a free one torture to spend your time on. And your time is limited, right? Why even spend 5 minutes with a low-quality book, even if it's free? Because, you see, it's not really free. You have to spend time reading it. And your time isn't free. It's time you could have spent elsewhere. Do you really want to spend hundreds of hours online searching through hundreds of thousands of books for a good one? I bet not.
You have a few time-saving choices. You can ask friends. You can go by an author's reputation. You can also go by a publisher's reputation.
When an indie author has a book for sale--and let's say you don't know this author from Adam--you don't have a guarantee that this author has put in the extra effort to create a quality book. I'm sure there are plenty of indie authors who are great. I know some who are. But if you buy from an established publisher, you at least can count on the fact that it's been edited by a professional, so you probably won't find many spelling or grammar errors. The story will probably be understandable, and there will probably be a decent plot. You can at least have that bottom-line guarantee. You can especially have that guarantee if that book has been published by a mainstream traditional publisher that has more than a few bestsellers under its belt. You're going by publisher reputation.
If the indie author is J.K. Rowling, you probably won't care how she's being published, you're going to buy her book or know the quality is going to be better than most. You're going by author name recognition.
Buying a book by a well-known publisher or author saves you what precious time you have in hunting through hundreds, nay, thousands of books trying to find that pinpoint balance between an affordable price and quality.
Right now, mainstream publishers are banking on the idea that you might be willing to pay the same for their ebooks as you would for a paper book because there is a better guarantee of quality. They're especially betting on it if the author is well-known, even a bestselling author. Hence, the price they're putting on it is the same as for a paper book. In other words, they're offering a service: you pay extra for the name brand, because they have just given you some information regarding a better chance at quality and saving you some time in looking for a good book...
...for now.
Because if you find an indie author whose books are fabulous, and she's offering the book for $2.99, are you really going to go to the mainstream publisher to buy an equally fabulous book for $6? Probably not, unless you are deeply craving that particular mainstream-published author's books.
Will mainstream publishers have to bring their prices down a bit to compete after a while? Probably so. The reason is because readers will eventually find indie authors who are just as good as those who are traditionally published, and the prices are between $4.99 and $2.99--99 cents if it's on sale. This is already happening. In fact, there are more than a few indie authors who have been traditionally published authors, and who have decided to epublish that novel they've wanted to publish for ages, but which has been turned down by traditional publishers.
The market is in flux right now. This is a great time to find new authors, and for authors to find new readers, and for authors to actually make a living instead of having to find a day job to support the writing (and trust me, working 60 hours a week doesn't make for great storytelling, it makes for a really, really tired person).
I don't know how long this will last. Authors are already wishing that they had more time to write because they're spending a lot of time on things like editing, finding covers, coding their manuscripts into the appropriate format, and so on, instead of creating a novel. And I don't know how long it'll be before Amazon, Apple, Barnes and Noble, etc., will decide that they, too, can take the lion's share of the profits and leave the author with a smaller and smaller percentage.
I have some hope, though. This new ebook venue means each author or group of authors can become their own small business, and that means they'll need to hire people to help them with the production of books. It means there will be job creation, and that's good for all of us, right?
As long as the authors get paid, that is. :-)
I think the market is in the testing phase, and there is more in the cost of production that goes into pricing.
The natural thing to assume about ebooks is that because they are rather...non-physical compared to paper books, and of course the reproduction costs are minimal compared to printing books,the books should therefore be priced at a lower cost than paper books.
I won't get into the fact that the electrons and molecules that make up data are as real as those in our bodies, and without those electrons, both ebooks and our bodies would burst into nothingness, because that would not only be irrelevant to this post, but would start me down the road to science fiction, which I don't want to get into at this point. :-)
But where pricing is concerned there are a few factors to consider.
1. Cost of production
All books, regardless of type, have a certain cost of production. You ever hear about the fact that "time is money"? Exactly. You go to work, you type up a report, fix a car, or code some software, and your boss pays you for that time. Same thing happens with a book, whether it's an ebook or a paper book. Regardless of whether the book is electronic or paper, someone puts in the time thinking up the story and hours upon hours of writing it. Then that person goes through and edits the book (I hope!). Someone creates a cover for it, whether it's painted or whether it's created on Photoshop. All these people need to be paid so that they can have a roof over their heads and food on the table. For paper books, editors go over the book in various stages to see if there are any errors that need to be fixed, anything from punctuation and grammar errors to story continuity. Trust me, an author can be as meticulous as all get-out and go over her story five times and still miss something, so having an editor or a very good critique group is essential. Editors, of course, need to be paid.
Of course, the production similarities diverge when it comes to the physical production. For paper books, there is the cost of getting paper, printing them, puting physical book covers on them, and all the costs involved in putting the books on trucks and driving them to various bookstores and grocery stores. Oh, and yes, those running the stores have to be paid, too. All of that goes into the price of a book. About 94% of the price of a paper book pays everyone except the author. The author generally gets 6% of the cover price. So, a paper book costs $5, the author gets 30 cents of that.
Even with an ebook, the retailer--Amazon, Barnes and Noble, Apple, etc.--get their cut.
2. Quality
Let's say you had a choice between two outfits. One is designed by Armani, is a perfect fit, makes you look 10 lbs thinner, and is made of silk so soft it's to die for. The other one is made of polyester that could sand the glaze off pottery and makes you look like your mother on drugs. Which would you choose? The dynamite silk outfit of course. The silk outfit is quality, the polyester is not. Most people are willing to pay a bit more for well-made silk than for poorly-made polyester.
3. Perception of value
Which brings me to the perception of value. In the example of quality above, all other things being equal, you'll probably want to get the Armani rather than the polyester-looks-like-your-mother-on-drugs outfit. Let's say you didn't even see a picture of the outfits, but you know that they're in your size and in a color you like. Again, which one would you go for? I bet the Armani. Why? Because chances are really good that the Armani would be better made and look good. In fact, if the polyester outfit cost $75, and the Armani cost $150--$75 more!--you'd still go for the Armani because at that price, it's worth it, even though it costs more than the polyester no-name suit, because a good Armani suit goes for around $200 on sale if you're lucky.
In other words, to most people, the name "Armani" has value. The company has a good reputation for well-made clothes.
But what if there's another company that makes to-die-for clothes--one you haven't heard of? How do you hear about it? Maybe a friend decided to take a chance, and ended up loving that company's clothes. He or she tells you about it. That previously no-name company now has a little bit more value to you--enough so that you're willing to give it a try--because your friend liked it, and you trust your friend.
The same thing goes for books.
In this exploding ebook publishing world, you get every kind of pricing from free to $10.00. You have every kind of person's work--from a teenager's fan fic homage to Twilight to J.K. Rowling--out there for sale. There are probably hundreds of thousands of books out there that you could download. How do you choose?
It basically comes down to cost of production, quality, and perception of value.
Even with ebooks, the cost of production will vary. There are more than a few ebooks out there by writers who couldn't spell their way out of a paper bag, whose stories are boring, or simply don't make any sense. The production costs are really low because the writer just wrote whatever and the uploaded it, and maybe slapped a bland cover on it that they Photoshopped in about a minute. That's low production cost, right there, and hand in hand with that is low quality.
These books may be free or cost 99 cents, but even at free you're going to wonder why you spent the time you did even trying to get through it. Your opinion of the book may be a matter of taste, but there are some real, objective, quality issues that are important to a production of a book that make even a free one torture to spend your time on. And your time is limited, right? Why even spend 5 minutes with a low-quality book, even if it's free? Because, you see, it's not really free. You have to spend time reading it. And your time isn't free. It's time you could have spent elsewhere. Do you really want to spend hundreds of hours online searching through hundreds of thousands of books for a good one? I bet not.
You have a few time-saving choices. You can ask friends. You can go by an author's reputation. You can also go by a publisher's reputation.
When an indie author has a book for sale--and let's say you don't know this author from Adam--you don't have a guarantee that this author has put in the extra effort to create a quality book. I'm sure there are plenty of indie authors who are great. I know some who are. But if you buy from an established publisher, you at least can count on the fact that it's been edited by a professional, so you probably won't find many spelling or grammar errors. The story will probably be understandable, and there will probably be a decent plot. You can at least have that bottom-line guarantee. You can especially have that guarantee if that book has been published by a mainstream traditional publisher that has more than a few bestsellers under its belt. You're going by publisher reputation.
If the indie author is J.K. Rowling, you probably won't care how she's being published, you're going to buy her book or know the quality is going to be better than most. You're going by author name recognition.
Buying a book by a well-known publisher or author saves you what precious time you have in hunting through hundreds, nay, thousands of books trying to find that pinpoint balance between an affordable price and quality.
Right now, mainstream publishers are banking on the idea that you might be willing to pay the same for their ebooks as you would for a paper book because there is a better guarantee of quality. They're especially betting on it if the author is well-known, even a bestselling author. Hence, the price they're putting on it is the same as for a paper book. In other words, they're offering a service: you pay extra for the name brand, because they have just given you some information regarding a better chance at quality and saving you some time in looking for a good book...
...for now.
Because if you find an indie author whose books are fabulous, and she's offering the book for $2.99, are you really going to go to the mainstream publisher to buy an equally fabulous book for $6? Probably not, unless you are deeply craving that particular mainstream-published author's books.
Will mainstream publishers have to bring their prices down a bit to compete after a while? Probably so. The reason is because readers will eventually find indie authors who are just as good as those who are traditionally published, and the prices are between $4.99 and $2.99--99 cents if it's on sale. This is already happening. In fact, there are more than a few indie authors who have been traditionally published authors, and who have decided to epublish that novel they've wanted to publish for ages, but which has been turned down by traditional publishers.
The market is in flux right now. This is a great time to find new authors, and for authors to find new readers, and for authors to actually make a living instead of having to find a day job to support the writing (and trust me, working 60 hours a week doesn't make for great storytelling, it makes for a really, really tired person).
I don't know how long this will last. Authors are already wishing that they had more time to write because they're spending a lot of time on things like editing, finding covers, coding their manuscripts into the appropriate format, and so on, instead of creating a novel. And I don't know how long it'll be before Amazon, Apple, Barnes and Noble, etc., will decide that they, too, can take the lion's share of the profits and leave the author with a smaller and smaller percentage.
I have some hope, though. This new ebook venue means each author or group of authors can become their own small business, and that means they'll need to hire people to help them with the production of books. It means there will be job creation, and that's good for all of us, right?
As long as the authors get paid, that is. :-)
Friday, November 20, 2009
Harlequin vs. RWA and a little history
I've seen more than a few comments around the blogosphere, lists, and Twitter about how Romance Writers of America should have been more compromising with Harlequin, that it's making their Harlequin authors some how "not published." How RWA has always been against innovation, and of course the perennial accusation comes in about how RWA hates ebooks. RWA just needs to come into the 21st century!
You don't get it. You really do not get it about RWA.
Let's take a look at their mission statement, right on their web site, up front:
You don't get it. You really do not get it about RWA.
Let's take a look at their mission statement, right on their web site, up front:
Romance Writers of America is dedicated to advancing the professional interests of career-focused romance writers through networking and advocacy.Notice the words "advancing the interests of career-focused romance writers." Notice the word "networking" and really, really, really take note of "advocacy."
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Harlequin vs. RWA
Jackie Kessler nailed it:
http://www.jackiekessler.com/blog/2009/11/19/harlequin-horizons-versus-rwa/
I'm pretty danged proud to be a member of Romance Writers of America right now--they've dropped Harlequin (HQ) from their recognized publisher list because of HQ's Harlequin Horizons vanity publishing venture. Science Fiction Writers of America and Mystery Writers of America have followed RWA's lead.
The news is all over the blogosphere and fiercely Tweeted right now, and it's not showing to Harlequin's benefit. Even the New Yorker is giving its two cents, and yeah, not so hot for HQ.
FWIW, I don't have a problem with self-publishing, nor do I even have a problem with vanity publishing. They all have their place. But if an agent did what HQ is doing, he or she would be drummed out of AAR. RWA is an author advocate organization. They can't go against their bylaws and mission and look the other way when even Harlequin--the world's largest romance publisher if not the world's largest publisher--does something detrimental to authors' interests.
And I've gotta say, even if you were determined to pay someone to publish your books, you could do it far, far less expensively than with Harlequin Horizons. Less than half price, or so I'm told.
From what I understand, Torstar, Harlequin's parent company is seeing losses in the millions; Harlequin is the only company under Torstar that's seeing a profit and a healthy one at that. I have no beef with any company making good money; I'm a capitalist at heart. But I wonder if Torstar is pressuring Harlequin to go the vanity publishing route to so as to make more money to bail out their other failing companies. Seems to me it's a sure way to kill the goose that's laying the golden eggs. If one of your companies is failing, you either do what you can to fix it, or you drop it. You don't go compromising the name and quality of the successful company to shore up the failing one.
Harlequin's still a good publisher with which to publish your books--advances, international distribution, etc., are okay. But not as a vanity publisher--not with the Horizon imprint. The money should flow to the author; the author shouldn't have to pay to be published.
http://www.jackiekessler.com/blog/2009/11/19/harlequin-horizons-versus-rwa/
I'm pretty danged proud to be a member of Romance Writers of America right now--they've dropped Harlequin (HQ) from their recognized publisher list because of HQ's Harlequin Horizons vanity publishing venture. Science Fiction Writers of America and Mystery Writers of America have followed RWA's lead.
The news is all over the blogosphere and fiercely Tweeted right now, and it's not showing to Harlequin's benefit. Even the New Yorker is giving its two cents, and yeah, not so hot for HQ.
FWIW, I don't have a problem with self-publishing, nor do I even have a problem with vanity publishing. They all have their place. But if an agent did what HQ is doing, he or she would be drummed out of AAR. RWA is an author advocate organization. They can't go against their bylaws and mission and look the other way when even Harlequin--the world's largest romance publisher if not the world's largest publisher--does something detrimental to authors' interests.
And I've gotta say, even if you were determined to pay someone to publish your books, you could do it far, far less expensively than with Harlequin Horizons. Less than half price, or so I'm told.
From what I understand, Torstar, Harlequin's parent company is seeing losses in the millions; Harlequin is the only company under Torstar that's seeing a profit and a healthy one at that. I have no beef with any company making good money; I'm a capitalist at heart. But I wonder if Torstar is pressuring Harlequin to go the vanity publishing route to so as to make more money to bail out their other failing companies. Seems to me it's a sure way to kill the goose that's laying the golden eggs. If one of your companies is failing, you either do what you can to fix it, or you drop it. You don't go compromising the name and quality of the successful company to shore up the failing one.
Harlequin's still a good publisher with which to publish your books--advances, international distribution, etc., are okay. But not as a vanity publisher--not with the Horizon imprint. The money should flow to the author; the author shouldn't have to pay to be published.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
When the post-conference energy is not there
It does happen.
I was reading over the enthusiastic posts regarding the Emerald City Conference, and I have to say I was nodding my head as I was reading them--yep, I was feeling an increased urge to write, and my mind was filled with the different ways I could write the story--stories, even--that I have in mind. I do love that conference, I truly do, and highly recommend it to anyone interested in writing and publishing.
However, there have been days when I've not felt that uptick in energy, and felt overwhelmed or discouraged instead. This is normal, this is okay, and in fact it does not mean the conference was a waste, and it does not mean you're some freak of writerly nature if you feel this way. And boy, does that make a writer feel somehow outcast, somehow alone. Why everyone else, and not me?
The truth is, there are many legitimate reasons why a writer might not feel that great during or after a conference. I don't think it's a lack of friendly people at all. I'm one of the shyest people in the world, but I've not felt that people weren't supportive of my efforts and my hopes when I've gone to a conference, even when I was a complete unknown newbie.
If you do feel let down after a conference, overwhelmed, etc., consider the following:
I was reading over the enthusiastic posts regarding the Emerald City Conference, and I have to say I was nodding my head as I was reading them--yep, I was feeling an increased urge to write, and my mind was filled with the different ways I could write the story--stories, even--that I have in mind. I do love that conference, I truly do, and highly recommend it to anyone interested in writing and publishing.
However, there have been days when I've not felt that uptick in energy, and felt overwhelmed or discouraged instead. This is normal, this is okay, and in fact it does not mean the conference was a waste, and it does not mean you're some freak of writerly nature if you feel this way. And boy, does that make a writer feel somehow outcast, somehow alone. Why everyone else, and not me?
The truth is, there are many legitimate reasons why a writer might not feel that great during or after a conference. I don't think it's a lack of friendly people at all. I'm one of the shyest people in the world, but I've not felt that people weren't supportive of my efforts and my hopes when I've gone to a conference, even when I was a complete unknown newbie.
If you do feel let down after a conference, overwhelmed, etc., consider the following:
- You aren't physically well
- You don't know anyone at the conference, everyone talks in writer jargon that you aren't familiar with, and you think if you open your mouth, you'll sound really stupid, and everyone will scorn you and heap spite on your head. You think everyone else is so much more knowledgeable than you, and therefore it sucks to be you.
- You think your stuff can't possibly be publishable, because every editor/agent/industry professional says they want something other than what you write, therefore your manuscript sucks dead canaries.
- You aren't physically well. I want you to seriously consider this. There is nothing like a lot of people congregated in a small, intense, and very friendly environment (hugs galore!) to pass on one virus or another. There is such a thing known as "conference crud" that happens every single year to people who go to either a large local conference or the national one. Or maybe you're just tired from the trip. Whatever it is, trust me, physical ailments or simple lack of sleep will kill that conference energy sooner than a fly on a frying pan. Get some rest, get better, and then go over your conference notes again. If that doesn't help, go see a doctor. I've been through some difficult physical ailments, including surgery, and there is nothing like being physically drained to cause one's creative energy and enthusiasm to write to disappear entirely. No amount of conference goodness will fix that. Your health and well-being comes before anything else.
- You don't know anyone at the conference, everyone is smarter than you, you don't know the jargon, yadda, yadda. STOP THAT! This is your fear talking, not your creativity, not your true worth as a writer. There are many, many first-timers and brand new writers at every conference. Both the Romance Writers of America national conference and the Emerald City Conference have a special welcoming session for first-timers and newbies. And even if you miss out on that session, keep in mind that every one of us have been newbies at conferences, we know exactly how it feels, and can sympathize.
As for jargon, don't be afraid to ask. Nobody is going to look down at you if you don't know what POV means, and if they do, then they're not worth knowing. If you ask, then there will be people who are more than happy to tell you, because it means you're willing to learn. There is nothing more delightful to the person steeped in writer-geekdom than a discussion of craft and technique. You ask about POV (point of view) at a lunch table or hotel café filled with writers getting their caffeine hit and you will get all sorts of friendly people jumping into the discussion of limited third versus first person, depth of POV, keeping to one POV per scene, and on and on. You will learn more about POV than you ever dreamed, and everyone will consider you "one of us" for just bringing it up and taking notes. Try it out the next time you're at a conference and don't know anyone at a table. Ask, "Why do some people think you should keep point of view to one per scene, and others don't?" You will get precisely the response I just mentioned. I'm serious.
- You think your stuff can't possibly be publishable. Okay, this is a problem that strikes both seasoned and newbie writers alike, regardless of whether one, five, ten, or no books have been published. The newbie--after a few editor/agent panels--thinks that the road to publication is steep, rocky, and fraught with traps for the unwary. The seasoned author thinks that nobody wants her, everyone hates her, and she should go eat some worms because the muse just isn't hip to that profitable vampire romance trend (or other). And vice versa.
I am telling you that this way of thinking is poison, pure poison to creative output. If you are going down this road, back away, put it out of your mind, and avoid going to editor/agent panels or anything that talks about market trends unless I'm the one who is talking about it. :-D You cannot create with the market in mind. Well, some people can, but there are not many of them. You must write to your true sense of story, from the heart. Though some people have honed their craft to the point where they can still create a good story, trust me when I say the sensation is rather like building a house with toothpicks--painstaking, time-consuming, and with little joy, unless you're sort who likes building houses with toothpicks, and I mean people-sized, not miniature. Write first, complete the story, then think about selling it.
I have said more than a few times at conferences and at workshops that we writers and readers (and the vast majority of genre writers start as readers) are the ones who make the trends. Not the publishers, although they'd love to have that kind of control. We are the ones who know what we want to read, and we are legion. As a result, when we can't find what we want to read, we often write it. This is where genre trends--and I will say all fiction trends--come from: from the readers who are also writers. It is a grass-roots movement, and though publishers may try to control that movement, their control is brief and the wisest editors and agents know this. Write what you love, and write from the heart. If you do this, you are the ones who create the trends, and will ride that wave to success.
If it's because you think your craft and technique aren't up to snuff, welcome to the club. The nature of writing stories is that you are forever learning, forever finding new techniques to help perfect your art. Every person at a conference is at different levels in their writing expertise. If you are new to writing fiction, go to some craft and technique workshops. You may find to your surprise that you are sitting next to an established author who wants to revisit and think more deeply about that particular workshop's writing technique. You Are Not Alone.
- You are an introvert and have gone to too many conferences, or over-scheduled yourself. Most writers I know are introverts, and by that I don't necessarily mean shy, I mean we (yes, I'm one) need quiet time to recharge our batteries. Unlike extroverts, we become drained when we're around a lot of people. We need time alone, time without any people around; time with quiet, soothing music; and maybe a massage by a masseuse who does not talk except to say "relax" in soft, hypnotic tones. I recommend not filling every hour of your schedule with workshops, seminars, meet-and-greets, and on and on. Make sure to take a mid-morning as well as a mid-afternoon quiet break in your hotel room when you're pretty sure nobody will be in there (if you have a roommate). Or find a friend who will let you be alone in the room for a while. If you must, go into the bathroom, pour a bath, shut the door, and relax in the bath for a good half hour. Do not underestimate the curative effects of quiet time in a quiet room if you are an introvert.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Emerald City Conference at the Bellevue Hilton, WA - Fini
As usual, the Greater Seattle RWA chapter's Emerald City Conference was very fun, very informative, and very full of creative energy. I believe we had more attendees this time than last; I understand that it's the largest chapter conference on the west coast of the U.S. There has not been one time I have departed from that conference with anything less than renewed enthusiasm for writing and full of ideas.
Quite a few authors were there of course: Cherry Adair, with her marvelous "Write the Damn Book" challenge; Deborah Cook (a.k.a., Claire Deveraux); Lisa Jackson; Alexis Morgan; Pat White; Stella Cameron; Jane Porter; Gerri Russell; Christine Warren; Yasmine Galenorn; Katie McAllister; Susan Mallery; Megan Chance; Terry McLaughlin; Bob Mayer; Eileen Cook; Robert Dugoni; and many more. Oh, and me. :-)
The workshops were set to appeal to writers of many levels, from brand new to multi-published and everything in between. Is a critique group right for you? There was a workshop to help you decide. What about the editor/author relationship? How does that work? Assistant Editor Peter Senftleben of Kensington Publishing and two of his authors, Gina Robinson and Shelli Stevens gave their expertise with that. Are you an author who needs to think about career planning? Katie MacAlister gave a workshop on that. Interested in writing for the Young Adult market? Authors Heather Davis, Serena Robar, and Dona Sarkar talked with expertise about what's allowed, how far you can go, and the current market trends. And research! If you wanted to know about Medieval castles, dragons, the Old West, and urban fantasy, there were workshops for those topics, too.
I want to give a special shout-out to Serena Robar for her workshop on the "Long Tail of Sales." This was a workshop I gladly moderated, as I feel it's a marketing model that will shortly become the dominant one. It favors smaller niche markets, and as romance is so very much about niches, it should adapt extremely well to this model and make a good deal of money doing it. It also favors the quick, mobile companies; mom-and-pop shops; and other small, flexible companies and individuals that are good at acting on the spot. I will do my best to suggest this workshop for the RWA National Conference, as I believe it's a very important one in our current economy if individuals--and companies--are to survive.
As for the market news...well, I heard a bit, not much. For now it seems to be steady as it goes: paranormals and historicals are doing fine, as I expected. First person novels seem to be popular, and I have to say, for a writer, it's great practice in keeping to one point of view. Young Adult novels are doing very, very well, and are definitely on the up-cycle (I remember a time when the Romance Writers of America dropped the Young Adult category from their contests, as there were too few entries--not any more!). Urban fantasy romances are still doing well, and steampunk is making inroads. Yes, vampires are still in, but the fantasy/paranormal romances are expanding in scope, thank God.
Romantic comedies--trust me when I say that their day is soon to come. I don't know why publishers are not publishing more of these. If they don't start coming into their own in the next year, I guarantee you'll see demand for them by 2012--only 3 years from now. If you're a writer of "romcom" get your stories written now. By the time the publishers get on board, you'll have a raft of manuscripts ready to submit. The reason I say this is that I do not think that our economy is going to recover quickly at all, and will still see some dips along the way. People buy entertainment when economies are down, and they go in droves for comedies (think of the popular movies of the Great Depression, and you'll see what I mean).
Westerns don't seem to be in, my gut instinct says they may not see much publishing light that soon, even though I do think there's a large market for it. Our economic cycle is hugely focused on urban tastes right now, and even though the more small-town areas are probably dying to read a good solid western, since the major publishing companies exist in huge urban centers, they probably have no idea that there is this huge untapped market. It's really too bad, in that some good solid, steady sales could be had in this "long tail" market. Certainly, a smaller, more flexible publishing company could take advantage of this niche.
Well, that's it for now. Next year...well, I doubt I'll be going to this lovely conference, as I'll be out of the country in Europe, if all goes as planned. It'll be quite expensive to fly out to Seattle, even to the East Coast. So unless our fortunes change, that'll be it for writing conferences.
Quite a few authors were there of course: Cherry Adair, with her marvelous "Write the Damn Book" challenge; Deborah Cook (a.k.a., Claire Deveraux); Lisa Jackson; Alexis Morgan; Pat White; Stella Cameron; Jane Porter; Gerri Russell; Christine Warren; Yasmine Galenorn; Katie McAllister; Susan Mallery; Megan Chance; Terry McLaughlin; Bob Mayer; Eileen Cook; Robert Dugoni; and many more. Oh, and me. :-)
The workshops were set to appeal to writers of many levels, from brand new to multi-published and everything in between. Is a critique group right for you? There was a workshop to help you decide. What about the editor/author relationship? How does that work? Assistant Editor Peter Senftleben of Kensington Publishing and two of his authors, Gina Robinson and Shelli Stevens gave their expertise with that. Are you an author who needs to think about career planning? Katie MacAlister gave a workshop on that. Interested in writing for the Young Adult market? Authors Heather Davis, Serena Robar, and Dona Sarkar talked with expertise about what's allowed, how far you can go, and the current market trends. And research! If you wanted to know about Medieval castles, dragons, the Old West, and urban fantasy, there were workshops for those topics, too.
I want to give a special shout-out to Serena Robar for her workshop on the "Long Tail of Sales." This was a workshop I gladly moderated, as I feel it's a marketing model that will shortly become the dominant one. It favors smaller niche markets, and as romance is so very much about niches, it should adapt extremely well to this model and make a good deal of money doing it. It also favors the quick, mobile companies; mom-and-pop shops; and other small, flexible companies and individuals that are good at acting on the spot. I will do my best to suggest this workshop for the RWA National Conference, as I believe it's a very important one in our current economy if individuals--and companies--are to survive.
As for the market news...well, I heard a bit, not much. For now it seems to be steady as it goes: paranormals and historicals are doing fine, as I expected. First person novels seem to be popular, and I have to say, for a writer, it's great practice in keeping to one point of view. Young Adult novels are doing very, very well, and are definitely on the up-cycle (I remember a time when the Romance Writers of America dropped the Young Adult category from their contests, as there were too few entries--not any more!). Urban fantasy romances are still doing well, and steampunk is making inroads. Yes, vampires are still in, but the fantasy/paranormal romances are expanding in scope, thank God.
Romantic comedies--trust me when I say that their day is soon to come. I don't know why publishers are not publishing more of these. If they don't start coming into their own in the next year, I guarantee you'll see demand for them by 2012--only 3 years from now. If you're a writer of "romcom" get your stories written now. By the time the publishers get on board, you'll have a raft of manuscripts ready to submit. The reason I say this is that I do not think that our economy is going to recover quickly at all, and will still see some dips along the way. People buy entertainment when economies are down, and they go in droves for comedies (think of the popular movies of the Great Depression, and you'll see what I mean).
Westerns don't seem to be in, my gut instinct says they may not see much publishing light that soon, even though I do think there's a large market for it. Our economic cycle is hugely focused on urban tastes right now, and even though the more small-town areas are probably dying to read a good solid western, since the major publishing companies exist in huge urban centers, they probably have no idea that there is this huge untapped market. It's really too bad, in that some good solid, steady sales could be had in this "long tail" market. Certainly, a smaller, more flexible publishing company could take advantage of this niche.
Well, that's it for now. Next year...well, I doubt I'll be going to this lovely conference, as I'll be out of the country in Europe, if all goes as planned. It'll be quite expensive to fly out to Seattle, even to the East Coast. So unless our fortunes change, that'll be it for writing conferences.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Romance market trends
From 8/8/09:
I haven't been to RWA national conference this year, and so haven't heard the market news, but that's fine...I know what they are, anyway. Which sounds arrogant, I guess, but anyone who has met me will tell you I'm not that kind of person. It's just that one of my hobbies is the study of demographics and market trends, focused mostly on publishing and in particular the romance market. I've studied it for...let's see...since 1995, ever since my vampire Regency (The Vampire Viscount) and paranormal Regency (The Devil's Bargain) first came out. Yeah, I wrote them way back before the vampire/paranormal thing was huge. I have a habit of doing that. It's tough going, because when you write ahead of the trend, most people think you're crazy. Hell, I predicted during the 2000 RWA conference that we were going to see a surge of kick-ass heroines and that paranormals were going to be huge, and gee, guess what? It happened--it was the news during that conference.
I gave a talk at the Emerald City RWA conference in 2006 about demographic trends, and predicted that we were going to see a social crisis in the next year or two, akin to the Great Depression (yes, there is a reason why our 401K is still okay, though it did take a hit, as everyone's did. Clue: look at the events 80 years ago). I did another workshop in a few years later on the exact same talk, and didn't change the date on my PowerPoint, to prove my point. The Seattle Chapter will vouch for me on this. :-D
Anyway, here are my predictions for the next few years:
Based on my observation of generations and demographics, plus the economic times, I figure romance and women's fiction--with an uplifting ending--are going to remain strong. As during the Great Depression, romantic comedies, stories with optimistic endings with the belief in the decency of every-day human beings. Think Ginger Rogers/Fred Astaire, such movies as "Daddy Long Legs," "Topper Takes a Trip" (romantic comedy/ paranormal), "Bringing up Baby." Comedies in general will do well--remember that Charlie Chaplin made millions during the Great Depression when movies were 25 cents per ticket.
And gee, as an aside, is it any surprise that musicals are becoming more popular with the under 30 set? The Seattle area is considered a "bellweather" region, and I'm seeing participation in musical theater and music like never before amongst the young 20's and teens. I want to emphasize the areas outside of Seattle proper--there are relatively few children and teens in Seattle, compared to most any other place in the nation except for San Francisco. If you want to watch for trends amongst teens and the early 20's, look at King County, outside of the city. Places like Kent, Auburn, Everett, Bellevue, etc.
Paranormals, and those stories with a spiritual/religious component will still be good sellers. Again, whatever gives a belief in something beyond ourselves will be popular, because in general, I think people's attitudes about society and our elected officials (on both sides of the political fence) is sort of...soured. Easier to believe in a larger abstract higher concept than individual fallible leaders.
Anything with a theme of overcoming difficulties to success/love/contentment should be popular.
In particular, I think vampires, while not as popular as before (saturation in the market) they will still be good sellers, in that these have the themes of encountering something potentially dangerous and navigating through discerning if it can be trusted or not. That reflects our times, plus the early 20-something and teen set. Anything else with that theme--encountering danger, going through a period of discernment, then triumph will be popular, because those just beginning to start their adult lives are facing the theme of a scary world in which they have to make their way. However, that theme has broadened to all generations because of the current economic and social crisis.
Also, though this theme is popular overall, for the Millennial generation (those born approximately from 1980 to 2000), stories with characters having a higher purpose and/or who are special in some way will be popular. This is why the Harry Potter books were so popular, and continue to be popular with them (aside for the fact that these books are simply danged good reading). In fact, they also had the strong, very strong spiritual/religious underpinning. No, they're not obvious to those who aren't familiar with religion (and ironically, a lot of religious people aren't familiar with their own), but trust me, they're there.
Despite the economic downturn, the Millenial generation is coming into their time of buying power. It's not as huge a buying power as the Boomers (still) have, but it's considerable simply because that population is so large compared to GenX and the Silent Generation (those who were children during the Great Depression).
And historicals..they'll keep going on. But what's missing--and wlll probably be popular when they do come about--are ones set during the American Revolution and possibly Civil War. Ditto WWII. Why? They all reflect what's we're going through/going to go through now. David McCullough hit a nerve with his books, John Adams and 1776. This is why he is both a bestseller AND a Pulitzer Prize winner (well, he's an awesome writer, so there's that).
Those are the eras the current crop of Millennials will find some common themes. The young people of those eras grew up in severely divisive times--as we do. Their elders could not come to any kind of consensus, and more time was spent squabbling and pointing out scandals than solving problems. The real concerns of the rural areas and those areas with less infrastructure (the American colonies during the Revolution, and the more rural South during the Civil War) were pitted against the concerns of the more sophisticated urban citizens (the British, and the very industrialized North, respectively). One of those crises ended up with a relatively healthy unity. The other...did not. WWII ended up with a healthy unity of purpose, and that was when we built the massive infrastructure that is now, unfortunately, aging to the point of danger to life and limb.
The current era...well, time will tell. We get to choose whether we get over our differences, find common ground, and work together, and I REALLY don't want finger pointing at the OTHER side that you just CAN'T talk to. Be the first to hold out the helping hand and open mind, people, and keep doing it. Really find out where the other side is coming from, what their fears are, and I mean their root fears, where they are suffering. Your survival depends on it. Although right now, my feeling is that either side's intention in finding out about the other side's suffering is in the interests of crushing the other side into dust. Or ignoring the other sides' suffering, period, because of course they're BAD. Yes, this Pollyanna is fighting cynicism.
To get back on track: As a result, there is a certain hunger in Millennials for hope (that is their nature), for the idea that difficulties can be worked through, that people can work together, that there is a higher purpose out there for every one. And, optimism is the very nature of romance novels, so I believe you will continue to see these novels prosper. Heroic fantasy will also do well, and fantasy in which the protagonists are fighting the powers of evil (Dresden files, is a good example).
GenX--do not dismiss this generation. This scrappy generation will help get us through the hard times. They do not hesitate to get their hands dirty and get the job done, and in hard times, that's what's needed. Think Patton. Yeah, those disaffected 1980's youth dressed in black and piercings end up being Patton, wreaking havoc amongst Hitler's armies. And they are really good consumers of paranormal stories that feature grim, realistic protagonists that wade through death and degradation to wreak destruction on predators. They are good at defending the weak and innocent while shooting off a witty quip, knowing that they will get no reward for their heroism, but that they're just here to do the job, hopefully with a small group of loyal friends or a devoted partner. (Think Buffy.)
Both GenX and the Millenials are hands-on, practical groups. GenX is a bit more gritty and pessimistic, while the Millenials are more optimistic. Both get the job done, and sooner or later become impatient with high-flying rhetoric.
I really also want to emphasize the religious/spiritual angle. When times are hard, when there is a crisis, people often turn to religion. This is why it is the most impoverished areas of the world that are the most religious; when you have very little, when your next day may bring hunger or the threat of poverty, then the only thing that often keeps you alive is hope in something higher and better, whether that would be your still-innocent children, or God, or both. In other words, these things represent hope for the future.
As a result, I expect books on religion and spirituality will stil be strong. Inspirational romances sales will probably hold steady, especially if there is some real spiritual insight there and realistic integration between some real, human life questions and religion/spirituality.
And...I expect the readership amongst men for romance novels will grow, and has been growing. Romance novels--especially those with suspense/mystery/action--will be especially appealing. Romance novels are probably one of the few fiction areas that feature men as good guys (we have heroes, after all!), and people, men need hope, too. That they have not much hope is reflected in the steep increases in male suicides, especially amongst teens and 20-somethings, in the last few decades, as much as 5 times that of females. It's also reflected in the fact that of all graduating high school seniors, 80% of girls apply to college, whereas only 20% of boys do, and that has been going on for a decades as well. That's another reason why the Harry Potter books were so popular amongst boys--these books are one of the few instances that featured a boy as a protagonist, a boy who was special, and who tried his best to do good. That's a hopeful thing for boys who are looking for a book to read.
So in essence:
Even so, I don't expect paper books to disappear for a long, long, long time.
You fill a need in an economy, and you will survive as a business, and publishing is a business. Hope is a need. And in this economy, everyone needs hope pretty badly right now.
I haven't been to RWA national conference this year, and so haven't heard the market news, but that's fine...I know what they are, anyway. Which sounds arrogant, I guess, but anyone who has met me will tell you I'm not that kind of person. It's just that one of my hobbies is the study of demographics and market trends, focused mostly on publishing and in particular the romance market. I've studied it for...let's see...since 1995, ever since my vampire Regency (The Vampire Viscount) and paranormal Regency (The Devil's Bargain) first came out. Yeah, I wrote them way back before the vampire/paranormal thing was huge. I have a habit of doing that. It's tough going, because when you write ahead of the trend, most people think you're crazy. Hell, I predicted during the 2000 RWA conference that we were going to see a surge of kick-ass heroines and that paranormals were going to be huge, and gee, guess what? It happened--it was the news during that conference.
I gave a talk at the Emerald City RWA conference in 2006 about demographic trends, and predicted that we were going to see a social crisis in the next year or two, akin to the Great Depression (yes, there is a reason why our 401K is still okay, though it did take a hit, as everyone's did. Clue: look at the events 80 years ago). I did another workshop in a few years later on the exact same talk, and didn't change the date on my PowerPoint, to prove my point. The Seattle Chapter will vouch for me on this. :-D
Anyway, here are my predictions for the next few years:
Based on my observation of generations and demographics, plus the economic times, I figure romance and women's fiction--with an uplifting ending--are going to remain strong. As during the Great Depression, romantic comedies, stories with optimistic endings with the belief in the decency of every-day human beings. Think Ginger Rogers/Fred Astaire, such movies as "Daddy Long Legs," "Topper Takes a Trip" (romantic comedy/ paranormal), "Bringing up Baby." Comedies in general will do well--remember that Charlie Chaplin made millions during the Great Depression when movies were 25 cents per ticket.
And gee, as an aside, is it any surprise that musicals are becoming more popular with the under 30 set? The Seattle area is considered a "bellweather" region, and I'm seeing participation in musical theater and music like never before amongst the young 20's and teens. I want to emphasize the areas outside of Seattle proper--there are relatively few children and teens in Seattle, compared to most any other place in the nation except for San Francisco. If you want to watch for trends amongst teens and the early 20's, look at King County, outside of the city. Places like Kent, Auburn, Everett, Bellevue, etc.
Paranormals, and those stories with a spiritual/religious component will still be good sellers. Again, whatever gives a belief in something beyond ourselves will be popular, because in general, I think people's attitudes about society and our elected officials (on both sides of the political fence) is sort of...soured. Easier to believe in a larger abstract higher concept than individual fallible leaders.
Anything with a theme of overcoming difficulties to success/love/contentment should be popular.
In particular, I think vampires, while not as popular as before (saturation in the market) they will still be good sellers, in that these have the themes of encountering something potentially dangerous and navigating through discerning if it can be trusted or not. That reflects our times, plus the early 20-something and teen set. Anything else with that theme--encountering danger, going through a period of discernment, then triumph will be popular, because those just beginning to start their adult lives are facing the theme of a scary world in which they have to make their way. However, that theme has broadened to all generations because of the current economic and social crisis.
Also, though this theme is popular overall, for the Millennial generation (those born approximately from 1980 to 2000), stories with characters having a higher purpose and/or who are special in some way will be popular. This is why the Harry Potter books were so popular, and continue to be popular with them (aside for the fact that these books are simply danged good reading). In fact, they also had the strong, very strong spiritual/religious underpinning. No, they're not obvious to those who aren't familiar with religion (and ironically, a lot of religious people aren't familiar with their own), but trust me, they're there.
Despite the economic downturn, the Millenial generation is coming into their time of buying power. It's not as huge a buying power as the Boomers (still) have, but it's considerable simply because that population is so large compared to GenX and the Silent Generation (those who were children during the Great Depression).
And historicals..they'll keep going on. But what's missing--and wlll probably be popular when they do come about--are ones set during the American Revolution and possibly Civil War. Ditto WWII. Why? They all reflect what's we're going through/going to go through now. David McCullough hit a nerve with his books, John Adams and 1776. This is why he is both a bestseller AND a Pulitzer Prize winner (well, he's an awesome writer, so there's that).
Those are the eras the current crop of Millennials will find some common themes. The young people of those eras grew up in severely divisive times--as we do. Their elders could not come to any kind of consensus, and more time was spent squabbling and pointing out scandals than solving problems. The real concerns of the rural areas and those areas with less infrastructure (the American colonies during the Revolution, and the more rural South during the Civil War) were pitted against the concerns of the more sophisticated urban citizens (the British, and the very industrialized North, respectively). One of those crises ended up with a relatively healthy unity. The other...did not. WWII ended up with a healthy unity of purpose, and that was when we built the massive infrastructure that is now, unfortunately, aging to the point of danger to life and limb.
The current era...well, time will tell. We get to choose whether we get over our differences, find common ground, and work together, and I REALLY don't want finger pointing at the OTHER side that you just CAN'T talk to. Be the first to hold out the helping hand and open mind, people, and keep doing it. Really find out where the other side is coming from, what their fears are, and I mean their root fears, where they are suffering. Your survival depends on it. Although right now, my feeling is that either side's intention in finding out about the other side's suffering is in the interests of crushing the other side into dust. Or ignoring the other sides' suffering, period, because of course they're BAD. Yes, this Pollyanna is fighting cynicism.
To get back on track: As a result, there is a certain hunger in Millennials for hope (that is their nature), for the idea that difficulties can be worked through, that people can work together, that there is a higher purpose out there for every one. And, optimism is the very nature of romance novels, so I believe you will continue to see these novels prosper. Heroic fantasy will also do well, and fantasy in which the protagonists are fighting the powers of evil (Dresden files, is a good example).
GenX--do not dismiss this generation. This scrappy generation will help get us through the hard times. They do not hesitate to get their hands dirty and get the job done, and in hard times, that's what's needed. Think Patton. Yeah, those disaffected 1980's youth dressed in black and piercings end up being Patton, wreaking havoc amongst Hitler's armies. And they are really good consumers of paranormal stories that feature grim, realistic protagonists that wade through death and degradation to wreak destruction on predators. They are good at defending the weak and innocent while shooting off a witty quip, knowing that they will get no reward for their heroism, but that they're just here to do the job, hopefully with a small group of loyal friends or a devoted partner. (Think Buffy.)
Both GenX and the Millenials are hands-on, practical groups. GenX is a bit more gritty and pessimistic, while the Millenials are more optimistic. Both get the job done, and sooner or later become impatient with high-flying rhetoric.
I really also want to emphasize the religious/spiritual angle. When times are hard, when there is a crisis, people often turn to religion. This is why it is the most impoverished areas of the world that are the most religious; when you have very little, when your next day may bring hunger or the threat of poverty, then the only thing that often keeps you alive is hope in something higher and better, whether that would be your still-innocent children, or God, or both. In other words, these things represent hope for the future.
As a result, I expect books on religion and spirituality will stil be strong. Inspirational romances sales will probably hold steady, especially if there is some real spiritual insight there and realistic integration between some real, human life questions and religion/spirituality.
And...I expect the readership amongst men for romance novels will grow, and has been growing. Romance novels--especially those with suspense/mystery/action--will be especially appealing. Romance novels are probably one of the few fiction areas that feature men as good guys (we have heroes, after all!), and people, men need hope, too. That they have not much hope is reflected in the steep increases in male suicides, especially amongst teens and 20-somethings, in the last few decades, as much as 5 times that of females. It's also reflected in the fact that of all graduating high school seniors, 80% of girls apply to college, whereas only 20% of boys do, and that has been going on for a decades as well. That's another reason why the Harry Potter books were so popular amongst boys--these books are one of the few instances that featured a boy as a protagonist, a boy who was special, and who tried his best to do good. That's a hopeful thing for boys who are looking for a book to read.
So in essence:
- Romance will be strong, and hold steady
- Paranormals strong, vampires have glutted the market, but will still hold steady (and zombies as protagonists or heros--oh, please. A bump in the road. I could be wrong, but having a guy who has to keep sticking his face back on with superglue because his flesh is just a bit on the rotten side is not romantic. However, innovation does occasionally win).
- Ghosts...give those a try. Demons, ditto. However, redemption as a theme should be strong. We have a very punishing society, with almost no forgiveness unless you have money or fame. Redemption themes as a result is another source of hope for the rest of us.
- Romantic comedies--yes!
- Historicals will hold steady, but do give the eras of the American Revolution, the Civil War, and WWII a try, although I expect these will probably be most popular in about 5 years. If Europe, Puritans vs. the Cavaliers, and Tudor era would work. the The authors MUST do the research on those, as ever. Less costume dramas, more historical meat.
- Inspirationals strong, but must integrate realities and questions of life
- Perseverence and success in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds is always a good theme.
- Good vs. Evil, always a good theme, but make it real.
- Oh, and the theme of fighting or subverting an ever-encroaching totalitarian government should also be popular in science fiction/fantasy/romance. Wouldn't hurt to bring back a Matrix-like theme, although I expect that'll be more like 10 years from now.
- More can-do, decent, heroic guys. Guys need hope, too, and they're going to be looking for something to keep them working and holding on. As a result, it'd be good to defeminize the covers on the action/romance/supspense romances--not a problem, as I see they're doing much of that already. Wouldn't hurt to do that to some of the historicals that have more action/suspense, etc., too.
- Forgot to mention above: Graphic novels. Always a good thing. Will do very well in the coming decade(s) as they are very adaptable to both print and electronic media, and the concepts are easily transferred to the big (and small) screen. The more mutable a story is to differing formats, the better. If a romance novel--especially if action, suspense, and/or paranormal--can be translated to a graphic novel/manga format, perfect.
Even so, I don't expect paper books to disappear for a long, long, long time.
You fill a need in an economy, and you will survive as a business, and publishing is a business. Hope is a need. And in this economy, everyone needs hope pretty badly right now.
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